Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,912$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(700 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,299.2}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,299.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(29.8 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(106.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $647$ on 2020-07-02

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,967$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,679.3}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 31.5)}}\) (asimptote \(30,679.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,965$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(605 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,922.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,922.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $802$ on 2020-07-02

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $240,961$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,894.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(233,894.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,818$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,816.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(33,816.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,060$ on 2020-07-02

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,739,879$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.13 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,607,134.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 66.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,607,134.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $128,740$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(40.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121,864.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.4)}}\) (asimptote \(121,864.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,829,169$ on 2020-07-02

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $285,268$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(5.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{303,524.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(303,524.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $44,080$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(9.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,886.8}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(41,886.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $239,815$ on 2020-07-02

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $70,639$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(4.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,832.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 102.7)}}\) (asimptote \(97,832.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,411$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(899 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,193.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 50.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,193.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $65,228$ on 2020-07-02

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $196,370$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.03 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{183,585.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(183,585.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,006$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,708.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,708.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,564$ on 2020-07-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Malaysia recovered 97%
Malta recovered 96%
Djibouti recovered 96%
Cuba recovered 95%
Estonia recovered 94%
Uganda recovered 90%
Denmark recovered 89%
Korea, South recovered 88%
Italy recovered 86%
Lithuania recovered 80%
Singapore recovered 77%
Sri Lanka recovered 76%
Turkey recovered 75%
Georgia recovered 71%
Qatar recovered 69%
Hungary recovered 58%
Chile recovered 50%
Belarus recovered 47%
Guinea recovered 39%
United Arab Emirates recovered 39%
Tajikistan recovered 31%
Afghanistan recovered 25%
Canada recovered 22%
Poland recovered 21%
Iran recovered 21%
Peru recovered 8%

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,643$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,311.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 41.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,311.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(59.9 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 18.0)}}\) (asimptote \(117.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $85$ on 2020-07-02

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $671$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(191 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{644.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(644.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-07-02

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-07-02

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,715$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(386 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,306.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 68.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,306.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $55$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.57 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58.3}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 57.9)}}\) (asimptote \(58.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $96$ on 2020-07-02

Cuba⮸

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,353$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(650 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,227.8}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,227.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $86$ on 2020-07-02

Best fit exponential: \(30.2 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 28.1)}}\) (asimptote \(84.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $46$ on 2020-07-02