Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,912$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(700 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,299.2}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,299.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $110$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(29.8 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(106.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $647$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $31,967$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(72.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,679.3}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 31.5)}}\) (asimptote \(30,679.3\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,965$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(605 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,922.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,922.7\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $802$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $240,961$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(6.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,894.0}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(233,894.0\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,818$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,816.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(33,816.0\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,060$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,739,879$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.13 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,607,134.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 66.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,607,134.9\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $128,740$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(40.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121,864.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.4)}}\) (asimptote \(121,864.8\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,829,169$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $285,268$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(5.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{303,524.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(303,524.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $44,080$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(9.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,886.8}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(41,886.8\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $239,815$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $70,639$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(4.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,832.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 102.7)}}\) (asimptote \(97,832.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,411$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(899 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,193.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 50.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,193.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $65,228$ on 2020-07-02
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $196,370$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(6.03 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{183,585.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(183,585.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,006$ on 2020-07-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,708.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,708.1\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,564$ on 2020-07-02